Could the Wright brothers, in their wildest dreams, have forecast that their venture would lead to today’s marvels and awesome deadliness of air power, in all its manifestations? The answer is a ‘no’ and a ‘yes’. No, if they were but a duo of ordinary cycle mechanics on an escapade to attempt what only the birds could do at that time; and no again, if they were but isolated eccentrics.

But yes, indeed, they would have, if we believe, that it was not so much their technical and mechanical ingenuity that goaded them on, but their propensity for dreaming the unthinkable, the unstoppable urge, to do the never-before-done. And again a thundering ‘yes’, if we recall, that there were many many others, who were driven by the same passion, to reach for the sky and beyond, and believed they could.

Just two years hence, the human race will celebrate the centenary of its first leap off the Earth in a heavier-than-air platform under its own power. As we usher in this momentous event, there will be many a recall of the great things that followed - for this was not just the start of aviation, but the advent of air power as we recognise it today.

Application of air power is not limited to its use in conflicts and wars. Nobody can deny that aviation has been instrumental in revolutionising travel and globe trade. Air power has given us freedom to travel to any part of the globe within hours, the opportunity to accelerate business, the ability to exploit and preserve Earth’s resources - tomorrow it will be that of space. It has given us the capability to alleviate mankind’s suffering and bring, speedy succour, as is being done so poignantly in Gujarat. In all these spheres, aerial and space means have played, and will continue to play, an increasingly substantial role in the growth of human endeavours. But, it is not my intent to venture into these applications but to focus entirely on the combat aspects of air power, as its greatest impact has been in the field of human conflict.

Just a decade after Kitty Hawk’s maiden flight, aeroplanes were being used as aerial chariots of war. And two decades later, the second World War saw massive air campaigns and air power becoming crucial for the success of both land and sea battles. And then, total domination by air power was demonstrated, it’s hard to believe, as long as a decade ago, in the Gulf War. The non-acceptors of the absolute potency of air power pointed out that the land forces were still required for the final mop-up. Kosovo was the first-ever total victory through air power alone. While detractors may still contest this view, anyone would be hard put to argue against the establishment of air power, as the overwhelmingly predominant factor in the outcome of any conflict. The Indian experiences in the liberation of Bangladesh in 1971 and the push-back of the intruders in Kargil year before last have given us a first-hand testimony, if that be required, of the potency of air power.

But the mind-boggling possibilities in the application of air power in the 21st century would pale even these great achievements just recounted. The question that must be asked today by Air Force commanders, by strategists and by policy-makers in the destiny of nations, is not what air power can do but what they want air power to do - for the possibilities of air power are immense-limited only by the depth of our vision, the strength of our beliefs and the boldness of our ingenuity.

The impact of significant technology breakthroughs has been revolutionary. Fighter tactics underwent a fundamental change with the introduction of the agile dog-fighting missile, and the fitment of the airborne radar fetched up the beyond visual-range missile and with it came another change in fighter tactics. Vulnerability of strike aircraft to enemy air defences brought about the concept of SEAD and heavy fighter escorts. And presently, all this appears to be made redundant by stealth as a single F-117 demonstrated its ability to penetrate into hostile territory and carry out missions, that not only several aircraft could not have done just a few years but even planning of several missions would not have given the same level of assurance of success as the F-117 did. But even the perceived invisibility of stealth, as we know it today, will be unmasked with passive radars, air-wake disturbances detectors or some other form of sensors. Nothing offers a permanent solution.

What will be the effect of the uninhabited combat vehicle, how soon can it be a reality? What about space? Already there have been conflicts with forces being supported extensively by space-based benign systems. Notwithstanding treaties on ban on space-based weapons, the concept of space-wars can not be brushed off any more as mere science fiction. And even those who move around blissfully in an apparent non-conflict environment, cannot be unaware of the reality of IW, not only through the antics of playful kid-hackers, but by determined hostile cyber terrorists.

The revolution in information technology is having, and will continue to have, the greatest influence on military matters. In fact, I think it is the exponential progress in this sphere, that has made it the greatest contributor, for the coinage of the term "Revolution in Military Affairs". The internet allows any individual to access all the possible knowledge, accumulated through uncountable numbers of minds from the time the ability to think put us humans apart from the rest of the animal world. The hunger for information and instant communication is making galaxies of satellites send down to earth trillions of bits of data. Stoppage of this conduit is now unthinkable.

(Based on the speech of Air Chief Marshal AY Tipnis at the international seminar on ‘Aerospace Technologies’, during Aero India-2001)